Kampala: Who is likely to become the next Lord Mayor?

The race for the Kampala Lord Mayorship has intensified as eight candidates prepare for a secret ballot on Thursday, January 22, 2026. The contest is primarily a two-horse race between the incumbent, Erias Lukwago (PFF), and his main challenger, Engineer Ronald Nsubuga Balimwezo (NUP).

While both represent the opposition, they bring distinct backgrounds and platforms to the race. Lukwago, seeking a fourth term, has often been at odds with the central government, limiting his ability to address critical city issues. During his current term, Kampala has been plagued by the Kiteezi landfill tragedy—which claimed over 34 lives—as well as frequent fire outbreaks, severe flooding of business districts, and a deteriorating road network.

Here is a breakdown of the two frontrunners:

Engineer Ronald Nsubuga Balimwezo (NUP)

· Why he is likely to win: Recent surveys and online polls indicate significant momentum for Balimwezo, with some data showing him leading the incumbent with over 60% of the projected vote.

· Appeal: As a professional engineer and the current Member of Parliament for Nakawa East, he is campaigning on a platform of “service delivery” and a “new vision.” He appeals to voters who are fatigued by the current administration and are seeking technical solutions to the city’s infrastructure crisis.

Erias Lukwago (PFF)

· Why he is likely to win: Lukwago is a veteran politician who has held the office since 2011. He maintains a strong legacy, having won the 2021 election decisively with nearly 200,000 votes.

· Appeal: His supporters view him as a “steadfast leader” and a “moral compass” who protects the urban poor against central government overreach. This is his first election under the newly formed People’s Front for Freedom (PFF) after his departure from the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)

Other candidates in the race includes, Hon Nabila Nagayi, Beatrice Mao (DP), Ibrahim Kasozi (FDC), Moses Kizito Nsubuga (NRM), Jothan Yamureebire Burobuto, and Eddy Bbira.

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